https://theovernightrate.com/Where the money went while you slept. Who pays, who gets paid, what it costs you. Free every weekday morning: rates, credit, mortgages, markets, corporate money and AI money.en-usTue, 27 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMT https://theovernightrate.com/issues/035https://theovernightrate.com/issues/035Tue, 27 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTBroadcom is guaranteeing the resale value behind a $63 billion chip lease to Anthropic, so the seller carries the risk. EQT's all-stock deal for Range builds a natural gas producer worth over $50 billion. Microsoft is paying staff to leave, with about 60,000 eligible. And Meta's $22.5 billion stock sale, with chipmakers lining up for up to $5.0 billion of it, lands on existing shareholders. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/034https://theovernightrate.com/issues/034Mon, 26 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTA US-listed Brazil fund fell 19% Sunday night after a result traders had priced as the long shot. SpaceX closed $40 billion of GPU debt while lenders shut out AI clouds without other revenue. Amex is cutting about 5% of its staff to prepare for AI. And Kalshi puts a December Fed hike at 75%, which would add another $125 a year to a $50,000 home equity line. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/033https://theovernightrate.com/issues/033Fri, 23 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe 10-year fell 17 basis points to 4.96% as money looked for safety. Brent settled at $113.17 while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 282.7 million barrels, its lowest since 1982. OpenAI's round of up to $30 billion covers about 5% of the $600 billion it plans to spend on compute. And taxpayers put up to $150 million behind refinery restarts. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/032https://theovernightrate.com/issues/032Thu, 22 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTMedian weekly pay rose 1.5% in a year while prices rose 3.5%, so our line for pay falling behind was crossed. Meta spent $34.91 billion on its buildout and ran negative free cash flow, and its Hyperion campus carries $27 billion of debt outside its books. Getty's shareholders get wiped out in a prepackaged bankruptcy. And Washington is lending out a third of the Northeast heating-oil reserve. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/031https://theovernightrate.com/issues/031Wed, 21 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTSigned contracts on existing homes fell 7.3% in September, with every region down. Capital One's late card balances rose to 3.74% even as its loss rate fell to 3.66%, and the bank still released $225 million of reserves. United paid $3.90 a gallon for jet fuel and grew revenue 17% anyway, because passengers paid 16.8% more per mile. And LA's mayor asked the city utility to stop shutoffs after record heat. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/030https://theovernightrate.com/issues/030Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTBuilder confidence fell to 29, the lowest since June 2012, and 43% of builders cut prices. Cleveland-Cliffs sold steel for $1,177 a ton, up from $1,032 a year earlier, and credits low imports. Amazon says it will cover the costs of a 960 MW Indiana nuclear plant if it's built. And Brent touched $110.70 on Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi oil sites that nobody has confirmed. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/029https://theovernightrate.com/issues/029Mon, 19 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTImport prices rose 1.1% in September and 8.1% over the year, and nonfuel imports haven't fallen in a month since August 2025. A presidential order raised the Graham Act's Russia duties and waived them in the same document. Japan cut its Treasury holdings by $35.6 billion. And NiSource says Microsoft will fund its own Indiana power, with customer savings of up to $140 a year. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/028https://theovernightrate.com/issues/028Fri, 16 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTProducer prices jumped 1.3% in September, the biggest monthly gain since March 2022, with energy leading and transport costs still rising. Kalshi's October hike contract fell to 14% after Warsh gave no rate path in Bangkok. Texas sent water-reporting letters to 156 data-center projects. Retail sales rose 0.8%, but only 0.2% once fuel outlets are left out. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/027https://theovernightrate.com/issues/027Thu, 15 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTPrices rose 0.6% in September while hourly pay rose 0.1%, so real pay fell 0.5% and Kalshi's October hike odds jumped to 28%. Bank of America booked a $1.2 billion penalty charge it can't deduct for taxes. BlackRock still took in $205 billion of new money. And the oil-heat homes of the Northeast get NOAA's winter outlook today. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/026https://theovernightrate.com/issues/026Wed, 14 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTNew York Fed President John Williams said one more hike may be enough, and Kalshi still holds a December hike at 75%. Big banks say card borrowers are still paying, with JPMorgan's card charge-off rate at 2.91%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said AI demand pressure could last two to three years. And at Citi, card rewards now cost more than card fees bring in, with interest on balances covering the gap. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/025https://theovernightrate.com/issues/025Tue, 13 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTCleveland Fed President Beth Hammack made the case for small, quick tightening, and Kalshi's December hike odds climbed to 75%. Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports through April 2027, though the diesel Moscow freed is roughly one day of US use. Kroger is cutting about 3,000 corporate jobs. Redfin says 14.5% of September home deals fell through, and sellers are the ones paying for it. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/024https://theovernightrate.com/issues/024Mon, 12 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTHurricane Isaias cut Gulf oil output to a 71.51% shut-in peak, still 57.54% offline Sunday, and DOE authorized an SPR exchange of up to 4 million barrels for Exxon and BP. UMich preliminary October sentiment fell to 46.3 as year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. Weekend Hormuz tanker hits kept deal odds near 15%. September CPI prints Wednesday. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/023https://theovernightrate.com/issues/023Fri, 09 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTFreddie Mac's 30-year rate reached 7.40% Thursday, above the 7.35% line this desk set the day before, and Treasury sold 30-year bonds at 5.618%, the highest stop since August 2000. The CBO put fiscal 2026 interest on the debt at $1.1 trillion, more than defense. Diesel is up $2.60 a gallon in a year. September inflation prints Wednesday, and Waller says another hike is coming. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/022https://theovernightrate.com/issues/022Thu, 08 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTRevolving credit shrank in August, crossing our line. The 10-year auction stopped at 5.30%. The minutes confirmed another hike is coming. Freddie prints at noon, the 30-year at 1. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/021https://theovernightrate.com/issues/021Wed, 07 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe trade deficit printed $105.6 billion, inside our line. The S&P 500 closed at a record while the 10-year eased to 5.27%. A 10-year auction at 1, the minutes at 2, card balances at 3. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/020https://theovernightrate.com/issues/020Tue, 06 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe 10-year closed at 5.31%, its highest since July 2001, two trading days after a 29,000 payroll. Stocks rallied anyway. The trade deficit prints at 8:30. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/019https://theovernightrate.com/issues/019Mon, 05 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTPayrolls missed at 29,000, the October hike fell to 17%, and the bills that repriced after the Fed's quarter point are still ahead of the ones that didn't. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/018https://theovernightrate.com/issues/018Fri, 02 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTFreddie printed 7.28%, above the 7.25% line. The crowd at 87% was right. Payrolls at 8:30. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/017https://theovernightrate.com/issues/017Thu, 01 Oct 2026 10:30:00 GMTCore PCE printed 0.2%, inside our band, and October hike odds fell anyway. The 10-year finished September at 5.29%. Freddie prints at noon. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/016https://theovernightrate.com/issues/016Wed, 30 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe 10-year closed at its highest since June 2007 while October hike odds fell to 42%. Junk-rated companies now borrow at about 8%. PCE prints at 8:30. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/015https://theovernightrate.com/issues/015Tue, 29 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTMortgage News Daily's average lender hit 7.50%. EIA's July residential power print is 18.31 cents a kilowatt-hour. Case-Shiller and JOLTS land this afternoon. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/014https://theovernightrate.com/issues/014Mon, 28 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTPrime has been 7.00% since Sept. 17. The billing cycle that shows it is still rolling. PCE prints Wednesday. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/013https://theovernightrate.com/issues/013Fri, 25 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTFreddie Mac's 30-year averaged 7.03%. New homes sold faster anyway. Durable goods print at 8:30. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/012https://theovernightrate.com/issues/012Thu, 24 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTA hot PMI repriced an October hike and the 30-year quote overnight. Freddie Mac prints at noon from 6.95%. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/011https://theovernightrate.com/issues/011Wed, 23 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTAnthropic cut the Opus sticker yesterday. Prime has been 7% since Thursday, and most card and HELOC APRs still wait on the next statement. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/010https://theovernightrate.com/issues/010Tue, 22 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe House told states to consider making data centers pay for their own grid upgrades. The Senate blocked a fast path Thursday. Diesel printed a sixth AAA record overnight. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/009https://theovernightrate.com/issues/009Mon, 21 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTPrime moved the morning after the hike. The average savings account still pays 0.38%, and diesel set its fifth record in five mornings. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/008https://theovernightrate.com/issues/008Fri, 18 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe 30-year mortgage posted its biggest weekly jump since April 2025 and stopped a nickel short of 7. The House voted 417 to 3 on who pays for a data center's substation. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/007https://theovernightrate.com/issues/007Thu, 17 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe Fed hiked, its own dots say one more, and the market went from a coin flip to 82% by dinner. Prime is 7% this morning. https://theovernightrate.com/issues/006https://theovernightrate.com/issues/006Wed, 16 Sep 2026 10:30:00 GMTThe Fed almost certainly hikes at 2. The number that matters more is its own forecast for the rest of the year.