The Overnight RateStablecoins made it simpler still, and at 2:15 the Senate votes on whether to start debating who gets to pay you for holding one.
- The hike tomorrow is at 88% on Polymarket, up from 80 on Monday (Polymarket). Two or more hikes this year is at 48%, up from 44 on Monday and 35 last Friday morning (Polymarket). So the first one’s basically priced, and the argument has moved to whether a second one follows.
- Saudi Arabia pumped 6.24 million barrels a day in August, down from 8.14 million the month before, and the East-West Pipeline that lets its oil get around the Strait of Hormuz is still offline (Trading Economics). WTI is around $102 this morning.
- Receipt on Monday’s issue: Polymarket had WTI closing above $100 on Monday at 86%. It closed above $101 (Polymarket). The favorite was over even money and it hit, so the crowd scores right.
Threshold: 2:15 pm, the Clarity Act
The Senate holds a cloture vote at 2:15 on the Clarity Act, the crypto market-structure bill (crypto.news). It’s procedural. It takes 60 votes just to open debate, and passing the bill would be a separate vote later (Bitget). Republicans hold 53 seats, so it needs at least seven Democrats or independents.
Nothing on Polymarket prices today’s vote directly. Its senator-count market only settles on a final passage vote, and today’s is a motion to proceed (Polymarket). The closest read is the bill becoming law this year, at 20%, down from 30 yesterday morning (Polymarket). That’s a much bigger ask than 60 votes to start talking.
Sixty or more and debate opens, which is news. Under 60 and it stalls again. I’ll post the count after the vote.
Who pays: the interest on a stablecoin
A stablecoin is a crypto token built to stay worth one dollar. The fight inside this bill is about who earns the interest those dollars can throw off.
Leave money at a bank and the bank lends it out and pays you a sliver. Banks are warning that if crypto platforms can pay rewards on stablecoin balances, people will pull money out of bank deposits and park it there instead (Bitget). Crypto firms argue tight rules would limit competition.
The version headed to the floor bans stablecoin yield that works like bank deposit interest, and allows rewards tied to transactions, payments, and liquidity (crypto.news). In plain terms, getting paid for using a stablecoin would be allowed. Getting paid just for sitting on one wouldn’t.
Net net: this is a fight over who earns the spread on idle dollars, banks or exchanges, and today’s vote only decides whether the Senate starts having it.
Headlines
- Diesel is $6.27 this morning, up 37 cents in a week and 70% from a year ago, with regular gas at $4.33 (AAA). On Monday the weekly gain was 33 cents.
- Polymarket gives Strait of Hormuz traffic an 18% chance of being back to normal by the end of the year (Polymarket). An Iran-Oman agreement on managing shipping by Sept 30 is at 24%, up from 20 on Monday (Polymarket).
Clarity count at 2:15. Fed decision tomorrow at 2.