The Overnight RateA data center does not connect out of benevolence either. The Ratepayer Protection Act asked states to put the grid upgrade on the customer that needs it, and on Thursday the Senate blocked the fast path that would have forced every commission to open that file.
- An October hike is back to 56% on Polymarket this morning, from 51% in Monday’s issue (Polymarket). Two or more hikes this year are still 86% (Polymarket). The 2-year Treasury closed Monday at 4.76%, unchanged from Friday (Treasury). The crowd moved five points. The note didn’t.
- Diesel set its sixth AAA record this morning at $6.5276, from $6.5107 yesterday and $6.2694 a week ago (AAA). Regular eased a hair to $4.4750. Year over year, diesel is up 77%. An Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping deal by Oct 31 fell to 31% from 35% Monday (Polymarket). The pump is still writing the other side of that market.
- Mortgage News Daily’s daily index ended Monday at 7.19%, a penny under Friday (Mortgage News Daily). Freddie Mac’s weekly average is still 6.95% until Thursday’s noon print (Freddie Mac). Polymarket has a 7.00 weekly print this year at 88% (Polymarket).
What things cost this morning
Regular gas is $4.48 and diesel $6.53 (AAA). Prime is 7.00% (Bank of America). Freddie Mac’s 30-year is 6.95% (Freddie Mac). Residential electricity averaged 18.34 cents a kilowatt hour in June, from 17.47 a year earlier, up 5.0%. Industrial was up 3.0% over the same year (EIA Electric Power Monthly, table 5.3).
Who pays: consider means the meter waits
The House passed the Ratepayer Protection Act on Sept. 16, 417 to 3 (House roll call 312). It would require state regulators to consider standards for any load over 100 megawatts: the customer pays the full incremental cost of generation, transmission and distribution built to serve it, posts financial assurance before the work starts, and covers the cost if it walks away early (Utility Dive). States get a year to open a proceeding and two to decide. They are not required to adopt the standard.
On Thursday a unanimous-consent request to clear the same bill in the Senate was blocked, which ends the shortcut before the midterms (CNBC, Roll Call). Thirteen states still have no large-load tariff at all (Utility Dive).
The mechanism, once: the utility builds the substation, recovers the cost through rates with an allowed return, and the state regulator decides which customers’ rates. Payer today, in those thirteen states and any state that keeps sharing the upgrade: the residential and small-business meter. Payee: the load that triggered the build, until a commission says otherwise. A 417 to 3 vote was the easy part. Making every state open the file still needs a Senate that will let the bill to the floor.
Net net: the House asked every state to price the substation. The Senate left that ask on the calendar, and the meter stays where the last tariff put it.
Headlines
- Claude Sonnet 5 still lists at $2 in and $10 out per million tokens. A cache hit on the same model is $0.20 (Anthropic docs). Identical text. The difference is whether the budget paid for a cache.
- Clarity Act becoming law this year: 6% on Polymarket, from 8% Monday (Polymarket). Thin, and falling.
- New home sales (Census) and Freddie Mac both land Thursday. Durable goods Friday. PCE waits until Sept. 30 (BEA).
Thursday’s survey closes Wednesday. A 7 handle settles the mortgage market.