The Overnight RateA rate card is permission to use someone else’s compute at a posted price. Anthropic posted a new one yesterday for Claude Opus 5.5. The sticker is lower. The bill still lands on whoever signs the API invoice.
- Anthropic priced Claude Opus 5.5, the first model in the Claude 5.5 family, at $4 in and $20 out per million tokens. That is 20% under Opus 5’s $5 and $25. Cache reads are $0.20 per million, from $0.50. Anthropic says typical workloads at default settings run about 40% cheaper than Opus 5. Fast mode is $8 and $40 (Anthropic). Model id:
claude-opus-5-5. - An October hike is 54% on Polymarket this morning, from 56% in Tuesday’s issue (Polymarket). The 2-year Treasury closed Tuesday at 4.71%, from 4.76% Monday (Treasury). Two or more hikes this year still sum to 87% on Polymarket (Polymarket).
- Mortgage News Daily’s daily index ended Tuesday at 7.17%, two basis points under Monday (Mortgage News Daily). Freddie Mac’s weekly average is still 6.95% until Thursday noon (Freddie Mac). A 7.00 weekly print this year is 89% on Polymarket (Polymarket).
Threshold: Thursday noon
Freddie Mac prints its weekly 30-year average at noon. News either way is a handle change from 6.95%: a print at 7.00 or higher, or a clear move back under 6.90. New home sales (Census) land the same morning at 10:00. Durable goods Friday. PCE waits until Sept. 30 (BEA).
Who pays: the next statement
Bank of America prime has been 7.00% since Sept. 17 (Bank of America). The Fed’s H.15 shows the bank prime loan rate at 7.00% since that Thursday (Fed H.15).
Most variable-rate credit cards and home equity lines are written as prime plus a margin. The index moved with the Fed. The APR on an existing account usually waits for the lender’s billing cycle, lookback, or first-of-month print. The Fed’s G.19 consumer credit release still publishes no current card rate, so this desk is not inventing one. The mechanism is the contract calendar after the FOMC calendar.
Payer: the household or small business carrying a prime-linked balance once the new cycle lands. Payee: the lender’s interest line. The quarter point reached the bank’s posted prime overnight. The statement that shows it can still be a cycle away.
Net net: the overnight rate moved last week. The card and HELOC rates that track it still wait on the statement date.
Headlines
- xAI’s Grok 4.7 still lists at $2 and $6 per million tokens under a 200k prompt, and $4 and $12 at or above, the same sheet as Grok 4.6, with a 2x-speed fast lane at 2x price (xAI docs, xAI news). Claude’s new Opus sticker sits next to that sheet this morning.
- Diesel eased a hair off yesterday’s AAA record, to $6.5217 from $6.5276. Regular is $4.4744 (AAA). An Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping deal by Oct 31 is 35% on Polymarket, from 31% Tuesday (Polymarket).
- Clarity Act becoming law this year: still 6% on Polymarket (Polymarket).
The survey closes Wednesday night. Thursday’s print is the receipt.