The Overnight RateYesterday’s survey of factories and offices crystallized into a higher mortgage quote before dinner. The weekly average still prints at noon.
- S&P Global’s flash US Composite PMI, a survey score of private-sector activity where 50 is flat, jumped to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the strongest reading since July 2021 (S&P Global, Trading Economics). Services ran to 58.7. Manufacturing PMI printed 57 against a 53.6 forecast (Mortgage News Daily). An October hike is 67% on Kalshi this morning and 69% on Polymarket, from 54% on Polymarket in Wednesday’s issue (Kalshi, Polymarket).
- The 2-year Treasury closed Wednesday at 4.85%, from 4.71% Tuesday. The 10-year closed at 5.11%, from 4.96% (Treasury). Mortgage News Daily’s daily 30-year index ended Wednesday at 7.26%, up 0.09 from Tuesday’s 7.17%, matching the high since May 2024 (Mortgage News Daily).
- Freddie Mac’s weekly average is still 6.95% until noon (Freddie Mac). A weekly print at 7.00 or higher this year is 97% on Polymarket, from 89% Wednesday (Polymarket). Diesel eased to $6.5141. Regular is $4.4825 (AAA).
Threshold: 10:00 and noon
New residential sales for August land at 10:00 (Census). July ran at a 607,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. A Reuters poll put the median near 615,000 (Census, Interactive Brokers). News either way is a clear miss under 600,000, or a print well above that band while the daily 30-year sits at 7.26%.
Freddie Mac prints its weekly 30-year average at noon. News is a handle change from 6.95%: 7.00 or higher, or a clear move back under 6.90. Durable goods Friday. PCE waits until Sept. 30 (BEA).
Who pays: the rate on the application
A fixed mortgage payment is mostly the price of impatience Fisher named, locked on the day the rate is set. Yesterday that market rate jumped nine basis points on the daily index after the PMI print (Mortgage News Daily). Freddie’s weekly survey averages applications Thursday through Wednesday and posts at noon (Freddie Mac).
The mechanism, once: the note rate on a purchase application sets principal and interest for the life of the loan. Builders sometimes buy the rate down for a month or two. The index that moved Wednesday is what the next application quotes against until the market gives it back.
Payer: the household signing a 30-year fixed at today’s quote, or the builder eating a temporary buydown. Payee: the investor who owns the mortgage-backed bond. Prime is still 7.00% since Sept. 17 (Bank of America). The overnight policy rate already moved last week. The long rate that prices a house moved on a survey.
Net net: a business-activity print became a higher mortgage quote in one afternoon. Noon is the weekly average’s turn.
Headlines
- Two or more Fed hikes this year: 89% on Polymarket (one 9%, two 47%, three 41%, four 1%), from 87% Wednesday (Polymarket). Recession by year-end: 10% (Polymarket).
- An Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping deal by Oct 31 fell to 30% from 35% Wednesday (Polymarket). Diesel is off its AAA record of $6.5276 and still $6.51 (AAA).
- Clarity Act becoming law this year: still 6% on Polymarket (Polymarket).
The daily index already moved. The weekly average has not posted yet.