The Overnight RateStein’s line is about paths that look endless until they are not. Tuesday desk, and two household meters are still printing higher: the mortgage quote and the power rate in the Electric Power Monthly.
- Mortgage News Daily’s daily average for top-tier 30-year fixed lenders finished Monday at 7.50%, the first time at that handle since April 30, 2024 (Mortgage News Daily). Freddie Mac’s weekly survey is still 7.03% as of Sept. 24, from 6.95% the week before and 6.30% a year ago (Freddie Mac). A weekly print at 7.25% or higher this year is 63% on Polymarket, from 66% Monday (Polymarket).
- The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,683.69, down 0.77% from Friday’s 7,743.41. The Dow fell 0.67% to 51,481.51. Nasdaq dropped 0.92% to 26,820.38 (Yahoo Finance). The 10-year Treasury closed Monday at 5.24%, from 5.17% Friday. The 2-year closed at 4.92%, from 4.81% (Treasury).
- Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing general business activity index slipped to 9.8 in September from 11.6 in August, while the production index jumped to 29.5 from 16.1 (Dallas Fed). Activity cooled a notch. Output and new orders did not.
Threshold: 1:00 and 2:00
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home prices for July print at 1:00. The June 20-city composite was up 2.1% year over year. Trading Economics has July YoY consensus near 2.2% (Trading Economics, S&P DJI June release). News either way is a clear miss under 1.5% YoY, or a print at or above 2.5% while the daily mortgage quote sits at 7.50%.
JOLTS job openings for August and Conference Board consumer confidence for September land at 2:00. July openings were 7.271 million. Consensus for August is near 7.23 million. September confidence prior was 89.4 with consensus near 89.2 (Trading Economics). News is a clear openings miss under 7.0 million, or a confidence break under 86 / above 93. Personal income and outlays, including PCE, still print Wednesday at 8:30 (BEA).
Who pays: the retail power rate
EIA’s Electric Power Monthly put the U.S. residential average at 18.31 cents a kilowatt-hour in July, from 18.34 in June and 17.45 in July 2025 (EIA Table 5.3). That is about 4.9% above a year earlier. The print covers July and shipped Sept. 24. It is the bill line on a two-month lag.
The mechanism, once: utilities charge retail cents per kilowatt-hour on the metered load. Generation fuel, wires, and rate cases set that number months before it shows on a statement. Regular gas is $4.4558 and diesel $6.4391 this morning, both under yesterday and well off diesel’s $6.5276 record from Sept. 22 (AAA). The pump eased. The power print did not need the pump to stay elevated year over year.
Payer: the household on a residential tariff. Payee: the utility collecting the approved rate. Tuesday’s feature is the meter that does not move with overnight SOFR.
Net net: the daily mortgage quote printed 7.50%. The power rate that already hit the July bill is still nearly a nickel above last July.
Headlines
- An October Fed hike is 68% on Kalshi this morning (last 68, bid 68 / ask 70) and 69% on Polymarket (Kalshi, Polymarket). Two or more hikes this year: 93% on Polymarket (one 9%, two 49%, three 42%, four 2%), from 94% Monday (Polymarket).
- Bank of America prime remains 7.00% effective Sept. 17 (Bank of America). SOFR printed 3.90% Friday (FRED). ICE BofA investment-grade OAS was 0.81 percentage points Friday. High-yield OAS was 2.93 (FRED).
- Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping deal by Oct 31: 26% on Polymarket, unchanged from Monday (Polymarket). Clarity Act this year: 5% (Polymarket). Overnight futures tape was unavailable this morning (timeout).
Cash is open against Monday’s higher yields and a 7.50% mortgage quote. The afternoon house-price and jobs prints are next.