The Overnight RateSamuelson was counting recession scares. Prediction markets keep a shorter tab, and one just resolved. Polymarket had a Freddie Mac weekly 30-year at 7.25% or higher this year at 87% in yesterday’s issue (Polymarket). Freddie printed 7.28% Thursday at noon (Freddie Mac). Crowd right.
- Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year fixed-rate average rose to 7.28% from 7.03%, the first print above 7.25% this year (Freddie Mac). The 15-year went to 6.60% from 6.42%. A year ago the 30-year was 6.34%. Mortgage News Daily’s daily quote for top-tier lenders was 7.54% Thursday, down from Wednesday’s 7.60% (Mortgage News Daily). The daily quote sat above the weekly survey all week. Thursday’s survey caught up.
- The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,666.45, up 0.19% from Wednesday (Yahoo Finance). The Dow edged to 50,926.56 and the Nasdaq to 26,871.60. Stocks steadied after the 10-year Treasury’s 5.29% close Wednesday, its highest since June 2007 (FRED).
- Junk-rated companies paid about 8.16% to borrow Wednesday, from 8.08% a day earlier and 7.46% the week before (FRED). Their spread over Treasuries widened to 3.12 points (FRED). Investment-grade yields rose to 6.02% with spreads barely changed at 0.84 points (FRED). Strong borrowers ride Treasury yields higher. Weaker ones pay a doubt premium that keeps growing.
Threshold: 8:30
BLS publishes September payrolls this morning at 8:30 ET. The August report showed 162,000 jobs added and a 4.1% unemployment rate (BLS). Consensus is about 90,000. Under 50,000, or 150,000 and up, is news for the October meeting. In between keeps December as the hike meeting at 68% on Polymarket. Wednesday’s PCE took the October hike from 42% to 34% by yesterday’s issue (Polymarket). It is 25% this morning. A weak payroll could push it below 20.
Who pays: the weekly rate, in the payment
Freddie Mac’s 30-year went from 7.03% to 7.28% in one survey (Freddie Mac). On a $300,000 loan, 7.28% runs about $2,053 a month in principal and interest, from $2,002 at 7.03%. That is $51 more a month, about $612 a year, for thirty years.
Payer: the household closing on a mortgage this week at the new rate. Payee: the lender and the investor behind the mortgage-backed security. A quarter point in a weekly survey barely makes a headline. In a 360-payment loan it compounds.
Net net: SOFR is 3.90% and sits (FRED). Freddie’s weekly average moved a quarter point in one survey and added about six hundred dollars a year to a new mortgage.
Headlines
- Regular gas $4.40 and diesel $6.37 this morning (AAA). Diesel is $2.67 above a year ago, about 72% higher. The pump eased from last week’s $6.50 but the annual gap holds.
- SOFR printed 3.90% on Sept. 30, quarter-end, with no funding squeeze (FRED). Banks collect 3.90% from the Fed on reserves (Fed). The national savings average is 0.37% as of Sept. 21 (FDIC). The spread is the bank’s to keep.
- Polymarket’s hike count for 2026 still leans toward two total (61%) and puts at least one more at 78%, from 82% yesterday (Polymarket). The crowd expects another hike. It shifted the timing from October toward December.
- The Hormuz shipping deal, Iran and Oman, by Oct. 31: 17% on Polymarket, from 18% yesterday (Polymarket). The Sept. 30 version expired at zero. Shippers and refiners still carry the risk premium in the gallon.
September payrolls at 8:30.