Eighteen days

Keynes was writing about governments in 1919. The process runs through household bills now, and the borrowing side reprices faster than the saving side.

• September payrolls came in at 29,000, less than a third of the 90,000 consensus, with unemployment ticking to 4.2% from 4.1% (BLS via FRED). August was revised to 133,000 from 162,000. July went negative. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73%, with the Dow at 51,176.96 and the Nasdaq at 27,190.86, up 1.19% (Yahoo Finance). An October hike is 17% on Polymarket this morning, from 25% in Friday’s issue (Polymarket). December holds at 72%. The crowd read a miss of 61,000 as one fewer hike.
• The 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 5.28%, up four basis points from Thursday’s 5.24% (Treasury). The 2-year finished at 4.83%, five basis points higher. September put about half a point on the 10-year, and the softest payroll of the year didn’t give any of it back.
• ICE BofA’s high-yield index yielded 8.22% Thursday with its spread over Treasuries at 3.24 points, from 3.12 Wednesday (FRED, FRED). Investment-grade spreads held at 0.86 points, with yield at 5.99% (FRED, FRED). A lower-rated company refinancing Thursday borrows at 8.22%. A strong one at 5.99%. The spread between them widened again.

What changed in your bills

Prime repriced to 7.00% on Sept. 17, the day of the hike (FRED). A home equity line at prime plus 1 runs 8.00% on the next statement. Variable-rate cards followed in the same billing cycle. Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year jumped from 7.03% to 7.28% in the Oct. 1 survey, the first weekly print above 7.25% this year (Freddie Mac). Regular gas is $4.37 this morning, down 11 cents in a week but $1.23 above a year ago (AAA). Diesel is $6.32, still $2.63 above last October. Residential electricity averaged 18.31 cents per kilowatt-hour in July, the latest month (EIA).

What didn’t move: the national savings average is 0.37% as of Sept. 21, four days after the hike (FDIC). A 12-month CD averages 1.73%. Both are where they were before the quarter point.

Who pays: the saver, still waiting

The Fed pays banks 3.90% on reserves as of the September decision (Fed). Banks charge borrowers 7.00% through prime (FRED). They pay savers 0.37% (FDIC). The quarter point landed on the borrowing side in days. Eighteen days later, the deposit side hasn’t budged.

Payer: the household earning 0.37% on savings while headline PCE runs 3.4% a year (BEA). Payee: the bank collecting 3.53 points between what the Fed pays on reserves and what the deposit earns.

Net net: the overnight rate moved eighteen days ago. Borrowing costs arrived in the next billing cycle. The savings rate is still on the old schedule.

Headlines

• This week: FOMC minutes from the Sept. 17 meeting Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET (Fed). Consumer credit, including revolving card balances, follows at 3:00 pm (Fed G.19). Freddie Mac’s next weekly 30-year prints Thursday at noon (Freddie Mac). September CPI is the week after, Oct. 14 at 8:30.
• Two or more hikes this year: 71% on Polymarket (one 26%, two 62%, three 8%, four 1%). No cuts in 2026: 96% (Polymarket). The crowd expects one more after September and has the timing on December.
• Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping deal by Oct. 31: 13% on Polymarket, from 17% in Friday’s issue (Polymarket). The Sept. 30 contract expired at zero. Diesel at $6.32 still carries the premium at the pump (AAA).

Minutes Wednesday. The 10-year opens the week at 5.28%.