The Overnight RateThe Overnight Rate · Live rates
The Fed funds rate
Source: Federal Reserve Board (FOMC target range via FRED DFEDTARL/DFEDTARU; meeting calendar). Latest observation: Mon, Oct 26, 2026. Pulled Oct 26, 2026, 10:30 AM ET. Effective fed funds rate 3.88% on Fri, Oct 23, 2026 (New York Fed, via FRED EFFR). Meeting dates: FOMC calendar.
What the market is pricing for October 27-28, 2026
| Outcome | Implied chance (price) |
|---|---|
| No change | 94% (93.5¢) |
| 25 bps increase | 6% (6¢) |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% (1¢) |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% (1¢) |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% (1¢) |
Source: Polymarket US market "Fed Decision in October", as of Oct 26, 2026, 10:30 AM ET; current displayed "Yes" price per outcome contract, in cents per $1. Prediction-market prices move all day and can add up to slightly more or less than 100% because of rounding and spreads. They are crowd estimates, not forecasts by The Overnight Rate.
Upcoming meetings
- October 27-28, 2026
- December 8-9, 2026 (with projections)
- January 26-27, 2027
- March 16-17, 2027 (with projections)
What it means
The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans. The Fed's policy committee sets a target range for it, currently 3.75%–4.00%, where it has been since the Thu, Sep 17, 2026 decision. Banks' prime rate, credit-card APRs, HELOCs and savings yields usually move with it within days or weeks of a change.
Fixed mortgage rates and long-term Treasury yields respond more to expectations about where the rate is headed than to the current level.